Volodymyr Zelenskyy has revealed what many in Kyiv feared but few in Washington have acknowledged: the United States is conditioning its security guarantees on Ukraine’s willingness to cede the entire Donbas region to Russia.

In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said the Americans have made their position clear through three rounds of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva this year. “The Americans are prepared to finalise these guarantees at a high level once Ukraine is ready to withdraw from Donbas,” Zelenskyy said.

The condition represents a significant hardening of the US position. In January, Zelenskyy said a security guarantees document between Ukraine and the US was “100% ready” and waiting to be signed. Following weekend talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Miami, he now says there is still work to be done.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

A war on two fronts

The timing is not coincidental. With the United States now engaged in an escalating conflict with Iran, President Donald Trump is applying pressure to Ukraine to bring a quick end to Europe’s bloodiest conflict since the Second World War.

“The Middle East definitely has an impact on President Trump, and I think on his next steps,” Zelenskyy told Reuters. “President Trump, unfortunately, in my opinion, still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side.”

A fourth round of trilateral talks scheduled for this month was postponed due to the Iran conflict.

The Ukrainian leader also accused Russia of attempting to leverage the situation, offering to stop sharing military intelligence with Iran if Washington would cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine. “I have reports from our intelligence services showing that Russia is doing this and saying: ‘I will not pass on intelligence to Iran if America stops passing intelligence to Ukraine.’ Isn’t that blackmail? Absolutely,” Zelenskyy said.

The fortress question

What the US proposal asks Ukraine to give up is not simply territory. The Donbas region contains what military analysts call a “Fortress Belt” — a sophisticated network of defensive fortifications that has prevented major Russian advances for months.

According to analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, the defensive line integrates at least seven distinct layers: minefields, anti-tank ditches, “dragon’s teeth” obstacles, bunkers, trench lines, and anti-drone defences. The town of Pokrovsk, under constant Russian assault since early 2025, serves as the linchpin of this system.

ISW analysts have described pressure on Ukraine to make territorial concessions over areas Russia is unlikely to seize quickly by military means as a “strategic error.” Even assuming Russian forces maintained their rate of advance from late 2025, they would be unlikely to seize all of Donetsk Oblast before August 2027. Severe weather in December and January slowed Russian progress further.

“I would very much like the American side to understand that the eastern part of our country is part of our security guarantees,” Zelenskyy said. He warned that a withdrawal would compromise not only Ukraine’s security but Europe’s, by handing fortified positions to Russia.

A public not ready to concede

The Ukrainian public appears to share this assessment. A major opinion poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in late January found that 52% of Ukrainians “categorically reject” transferring Donbas to Russia in exchange for security guarantees. Only 40% said they would consider it.

The poll also found that 65% of Ukrainians are ready to endure the war “as long as necessary” — a figure that has actually increased slightly from 62% in late 2025. This resilience persists despite a Russian campaign of large-scale strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure that left more than three million people without power or heating in January.

Anton Hrushetsky, KIIS executive director, noted that neither the energy attacks nor the Trump administration’s decision to cut off arms donations in February 2025 have produced the capitulation that both Moscow and Washington may have expected.

The trust deficit

Any settlement would require Ukraine to place considerable faith in guarantees that have not yet been defined. Two questions remain unresolved, according to Zelenskyy: who would fund Ukraine’s weapons purchases to sustain its military deterrent, and how exactly would allies respond to future Russian aggression?

The historical record offers little comfort. Russia was a signatory to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which provided assurances for Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for Kyiv giving up its nuclear arsenal. It invaded anyway. The Minsk accords of 2014 and 2015 similarly failed to halt Russian-backed separatists.

Russian officials have already signalled they will not accept any settlement that includes meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine. Russian Foreign Intelligence Service chief Sergey Naryshkin described European peace terms as “absolutely unacceptable,” while State Duma deputy chairman Aleksey Zhuravlyov rejected the idea of NATO troops in postwar Ukraine.

Russia, in other words, appears to be betting that Washington’s patience will run out before Kyiv’s.

Zelenskyy acknowledged this risk, saying Russia was betting Washington would lose interest if the peace talks stalled and would walk away.

Whether that bet pays off may depend on whether the Trump administration sees more value in a quick deal than in a durable peace.

Sources