Three hundred and forty-seven drones shot down over Russia. Ninety-two drones shot down over Ukraine. Two mutually declared ceasefires. Zero hours of silence.

The Kremlin’s unilateral Victory Day truce, meant to cover May 8 and 9, lasted roughly as long as it took to announce. By the early hours of Thursday, both Russia and Ukraine had launched the kind of aerial barrages that have become routine in a war now in its fifth year — except this time, each side had pledged to stop.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said its air defenses destroyed 347 Ukrainian drones overnight across more than 20 Russian regions, including Moscow, in what would be Ukraine’s second-largest aerial attack of the war, according to the Associated Press. Ukraine’s military said it downed 92 of 102 Russian drones launched at its territory the same night. In Kharkiv, a drone strike wounded nine people, including three children, local officials reported.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said there had been “not even a token attempt at a cease-fire on the front,” reporting continued Russian shelling, assault operations, and drone strikes.

Who violated first

The timeline of mutual recrimination is instructive. On Monday, Russia declared a unilateral pause for May 8–9 to mark the 81st anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. Kyiv rejected Moscow’s framing and countered with its own ceasefire proposal beginning at midnight on May 6 — two days earlier — offering to extend it into a more lasting truce.

Ukraine said it observed silence from its deadline. Russia said it did the same from its. Both claims are almost certainly incomplete.

By Tuesday, before either ceasefire formally overlapped, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported destroying 289 Ukrainian drones overnight across 18 regions, according to the AP. The reciprocal strikes escalated through the week.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it “responded in kind to violations of the cease-fire and carried out retaliatory strikes.” Zelenskyy said Russia’s attacks had been ceaseless, hitting civilian areas, the power grid, and the rail network.

Both sides have form. Previous ceasefire attempts — most recently around Orthodox Easter — had “little to no impact,” the AP reported.

A parade without tanks

Saturday’s Victory Day parade on Red Square will proceed without tanks, missiles, or other military hardware for the first time in nearly two decades. The Russian Defense Ministry cited “the current operational situation.” Russian MP Yevgeny Popov offered a more candid explanation to the BBC: “Our tanks are busy right now. They are fighting.”

The scale-back speaks volumes. According to Oryx, an open-source intelligence project, more than 14,000 Russian tanks, armored personnel carriers, and other combat vehicles have been destroyed, captured, or abandoned since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.

Mobile internet will be shut down across Moscow on May 9, state media reported. The Kremlin has also revoked accreditation for several international outlets — including AFP, Sky News, and Der Spiegel — to cover the parade, according to Der Spiegel. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the reporting “false,” attributing the limits to the scaled-down format.

The guest list has thinned as well. Fewer than ten foreign dignitaries are expected, compared to 27 heads of state last year, when Chinese President Xi Jinping sat beside Putin watching modern tanks and Iskander ballistic missiles roll across Red Square. This year’s attendees include Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko, Malaysia’s King Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar, and Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith.

Threats and deterrence

Russia has warned it will launch a “massive missile strike on the center of Kyiv” if Ukraine disrupts the celebrations, and its Foreign Ministry has advised foreign embassies in the Ukrainian capital to evacuate. Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia had “strengthened our focus on the possibility of retaliatory measures.”

Zelenskyy’s response to the foreign dignitaries planning to attend was characteristically blunt: “An odd desire at a time like this. We do not recommend it.”

The credibility deficit

The immediate casualty of this week’s fighting is not military — it is diplomatic. If a ceasefire declared for one of Russia’s most sacred national holidays cannot hold for a single night, the prospects for any negotiated pause grow correspondingly dimmer. Each failed truce makes the next announcement easier to dismiss as theater.

Both sides demonstrated this week that they can project massive drone power deep into enemy territory. Neither demonstrated the restraint required to stop. US-led peace efforts continue to gain no traction, with Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council head Rustem Umerov in Washington on Thursday for meetings with Trump administration officials, according to Zelenskyy.

Victory Day commemorates the defeat of a regime that lasted 12 years. Russia’s war in Ukraine has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s entire fight against Hitler. The parade in Moscow will have soldiers, jets, and the word Pobeda — victory — draped across Red Square. It will not have the thing the holiday was created to celebrate.

Sources