$23 in an evening. That’s how much a barrel of US crude shed after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran — a 16% plunge that captured, in a single number, just how much catastrophic escalation had been priced into global energy markets.

US crude futures slid more than 16% to below $94 per barrel after Trump’s announcement, according to NBC News, after briefly touching $117 earlier in the day. Brent crude eased 0.5% to $109.27 during regular trading before sliding further after hours. S&P 500 futures surged more than 2.5%, Dow futures spiked 1,000 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped nearly 3%, NBC News reported.

The physical oil market told the story of how bad things had gotten — and how far recovery must travel. North Sea Forties crude hit an all-time high of $146.09 per barrel on Tuesday, surpassing even the 2008 record. Dated Brent was assessed at $144.42 by S&P Global Platts on April 7 — also a record. Buyers were paying nearly $20 more per barrel than futures reflected, a gap driven, as veteran oil trader Adi Imsirovic told Reuters, by “panic.”

The Deal: A Ceasefire With Fine Print

Trump’s announcement, posted on Truth Social less than two hours before his deadline for Tehran, said he had agreed to a “double sided CEASEFIRE” at the request of Pakistani mediators — Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief General Asim Munir. Israel also agreed to suspend its bombing campaign, according to White House officials confirmed by Reuters and NBC News.

The ceasefire is conditional on Iran agreeing to what Trump called the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” The waterway normally carries more than 20% of global oil supply, with over 100 ships passing daily. It has been effectively shuttered since early March.

Iran’s response was carefully hedged. Foreign Minister Seyed Araghchi wrote on X that “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” Before the war, there were no technical limitations on Hormuz traffic. Iran also did not clarify whether it would continue charging tolls for passage, as it has done during the conflict.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council formally accepted the ceasefire but left no ambiguity about its posture. “It is emphasized that this does not signify the termination of the war,” the council said. “Our hands remain upon the trigger, and should the slightest error be committed by the enemy, it shall be met with full force.”

The 10-Point Plan: Workable Basis or Opening Bid?

Trump said Iran had presented a 10-point proposal that constituted a “workable basis” for negotiations, with talks scheduled to begin Friday in Islamabad.

The details suggest the gap between the sides remains enormous. Iran’s terms include “regulated passage” through Hormuz “under the coordination of the Armed Forces of Iran” — language that would confer upon Tehran what it called “a unique economic and geopolitical standing.” Iran also seeks full sanctions relief and the withdrawal of US combat forces from the region, though it did not define what counts as “combat forces,” potentially leaving American bases in place.

Those terms would represent an extraordinary concession from Washington after 47 years of hostility.

A Day of Extremes

The ceasefire capped a day that tested the nerves of world leaders, markets, and anyone within missile range.

Hours before the deal, Trump issued an extraordinary threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” The language drew condemnation from Democrats, disaffected Trump supporters, UN leadership, and Pope Leo — the first American pontiff. Alaska Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski called the rhetoric an “affront” to American values, saying it “cannot be excused away as an attempt to gain leverage.”

The bombs did not wait for diplomacy. US and Israeli strikes intensified before the deadline, hitting bridges, an airport, a petrochemical plant, and military targets on Kharg Island — Iran’s main oil export terminal — for the second time in the war. Iran retaliated with strikes on a ship in the Gulf and a Saudi petrochemical complex. Four people, including a child, were wounded in Qatar when debris from intercepted Iranian missiles struck a residential area, according to Qatar’s Interior Ministry.

Genuine Off-Ramp or Tactical Pause?

Trump’s framing — that the US had “already met and exceeded all Military objectives” — offers a face-saving rationale for stepping back from threats that had rattled allies and markets. But the pattern is familiar. Trump has set a series of escalation deadlines throughout the war, only to retreat each time — a dynamic critics have labeled “Trump Always Chickens Out,” or TACO, as the Associated Press noted.

The political pressures are real. With midterm campaigns underway, Trump’s approval ratings have hit their lowest level ever, Reuters reported, with sizable majorities opposed to the war and frustrated by gasoline averaging $4.14 per gallon. Diesel was at $5.64 on Tuesday, nearing its all-time high.

Two weeks is a long time in a war that has claimed more than 5,000 lives across nearly a dozen countries, including over 1,600 civilians in Iran, according to tallies from government sources and human rights groups. It is also barely enough time to begin clearing the logistical wreckage at Hormuz, where mine clearance alone could take weeks. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan cautioned that the ceasefire likely means “another two weeks of status quo and barely anything getting through the Strait,” which could keep pushing fuel prices higher.

Pakistan has briefed Saudi, Egyptian, and Turkish counterparts on the peace effort, building regional pressure on both parties. But Iran’s demand for a full US military withdrawal and its insistence on “regulated passage” through Hormuz remain far from anything Washington has previously accepted.

The war is six weeks old. The damage — from Kharg Island’s oil terminals to shattered Iranian bridges — will take years to repair. A 10-point proposal exists, but the two sides appear to agree on little beyond not bombing each other for the next fortnight.

The markets, for one night, chose optimism. The physical oil market, where refiners are paying record prices for immediate delivery, is less easily persuaded.

Sources