Two American aircraft went down in a single day. One crew member is safe. Another is somewhere in the mountains of southwestern Iran — hiding, captured, or worse — while the clock ticks on a search operation that has already cost the US military two helicopters damaged by enemy fire.

An F-15E Strike Eagle from the 494th Fighter Squadron, based at RAF Lakenheath in the UK, was shot down over Iran on Friday, multiple US officials confirmed to Reuters, the New York Times, and other outlets. It is the first confirmed loss of a US combat aircraft over Iranian territory since the war began nearly five weeks ago. One of its two crew members was rescued, according to CBS News and Israeli media citing US and Western security sources. The second remains missing.

Roughly simultaneously, an A-10 Warthog went down near the Strait of Hormuz. Its lone pilot was safely recovered, according to two US officials. Few details emerged about that incident, including whether it was shot down or suffered mechanical failure.

A Manhunt on Hostile Ground

Iran moved quickly to exploit the loss. State media released photos of a tail fin and debris consistent with an F-15E, according to William Goodhind, a forensic imagery analyst with Contested Ground. Separate footage of an ejector seat posted online appeared consistent with the ACES II type used in F-15Es. Justin Bronk, an aviation expert at the Royal United Services Institute, said that if genuine, it suggested at least one crew member had ejected successfully.

Iranian officials offered bounties for the missing crew member. The governor of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province said anyone who captured or killed the crew would be “specially commended,” the semi-official ISNA news agency reported. An Iranian businessman put up a $60,000 reward for their capture alive. Iranian state media initially claimed to have shot down an F-35 using a new air defence system — a claim contradicted by the wreckage itself.

The US rescue operation came under immediate fire. Two Blackhawk helicopters were struck by Iranian ground fire but managed to escape Iranian airspace, two US officials told Reuters. Subsequent footage showed a C-130 Hercules and an HH-60 Pave Hawk helicopter flying low near Behbahan, roughly 30 miles from the Gulf coast, during what appeared to be a mid-mission refuelling.

Air Superiority, Reassessed

The downings cut directly against the public posture of American commanders. The Pentagon claimed “an increase in air superiority” over Iran just three days before the F-15E was lost. A week earlier, Trump declared that Iran’s military was so thoroughly defeated that “we literally have planes flying over Tehran and other parts of their country. They can’t do a thing about it.”

Iran can still do plenty. US intelligence assesses that only about one-third of Iran’s missile arsenal has been confirmed destroyed, Reuters reported. The status of another third is unclear but may have been damaged or buried in underground bunkers. Emma Salisbury, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told Deutsche Welle that the US “does not have air superiority over Iran” and was unlikely to achieve it soon, because Iranian missiles and drones can be launched from “so many locations within Iran that it is really very difficult to attack that kind of capability.”

Mounting Costs

The cumulative toll is climbing. Three F-15Es were previously shot down by a Kuwaiti air defence system in a friendly-fire incident on March 1. Sixteen uncrewed Reaper drones have been destroyed. The total cost of lost and damaged US aircraft exceeds $3 billion, according to Airforce Technology. Thirteen American service members have been killed and more than 300 wounded since the war began, US Central Command reports. No US personnel have been taken prisoner by Iran — so far.

The war is becoming a political liability at home. Two-thirds of Americans believe the US should end its involvement quickly, even if that means abandoning the administration’s stated goals, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found this week. Oil prices have climbed above $111 per barrel on fears of further escalation.

Trump, asked by NBC News whether the downing would affect negotiations with Iran, was blunt. “No, not at all,” he said. “No, it’s war.”

Pressed by The Independent on what he would do if Iranian forces reached the missing airman first, the president said only: “We hope that’s not going to happen.”

Sources