The United States and Iran are either in the middle of productive peace negotiations or not talking at all—depending entirely on whom you ask.

President Donald Trump announced Thursday that he would extend a pause on strikes against Iran’s energy facilities for another ten days, pushing the deadline to April 6. “Talks are ongoing and going very well,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding that Tehran had requested the delay through intermediaries.

Iran’s response was emphatic. “No negotiations have happened with the enemy until now, and we do not plan on any negotiations,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian state television late Wednesday. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf called Trump’s claims “fakenews” designed to “manipulate financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which US and Israel are trapped.”

The gap between Washington’s diplomatic optimism and Tehran’s blanket denials has become the defining feature of a conflict now in its fourth week—one whose objectives remain murky even as its consequences grow clearer.

What the Pause Actually Pauses

Trump’s original ultimatum, issued last weekend, threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s energy infrastructure if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. The threat sent oil prices past $100 per barrel before the first postponement calmed markets.

This second extension suggests the threat may have been more leverage than intention. According to Hassan Ahmadian, a professor at the University of Tehran who spoke with Al Jazeera, the mediation effort appears to be Trump’s way of “climbing down” from a deadline that risked triggering significant Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed during a Cabinet meeting that Washington had presented a 15-point “action list” to Iran through Pakistan, which has been facilitating back-channel communications. Witkoff indicated there was a “strong possibility” of an agreement if Washington could “convince Iran this is the inflection point.”

But Trump himself expressed ambivalence about whether a deal is even desirable. “I don’t know if we’ll be able to do that. I don’t know if we’re willing to do that,” he said at the Cabinet meeting, adding that Iran “should have” sought a deal “four weeks ago.”

Tehran’s Counterproposal

Iranian officials reviewed the US proposal Wednesday night and dismissed it as “one-sided and unfair,” according to an unnamed Iranian official cited by Reuters. The proposal, they said, asked Iran to “relinquish its ability to defend itself in exchange for a vague plan to lift sanctions” and lacked “the minimum requirements for success.”

Tehran responded with its own terms: a halt to the killings of Iranian officials, guarantees against future aggression, war reparations, an end to hostilities, and continued Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

Neither set of demands appears designed for immediate acceptance. But the exchange of proposals through intermediaries suggests something more than pure posturing—even if both sides prefer to frame it differently for domestic audiences.

The Hormuz Chokehold

Whatever happens at the negotiating table, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Iran has maintained its blockade through drone and missile attacks on shipping, choking off a waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius described the war as an economic “catastrophe” on Thursday. “From the beginning on, we have not been consulted before. Nobody asked us before. It’s not our war and therefore we don’t want to get sucked into that war,” he told reporters in Australia.

US Central Command says American forces have struck more than 10,000 targets in the campaign, destroying 92 percent of Iran’s largest naval vessels and damaging over two-thirds of its missile and drone production facilities. Admiral Brad Cooper said the US is “on a path to completely eliminate Iran’s wider military manufacturing apparatus.” But Iran’s asymmetric capabilities—the small boats, mobile missile launchers, and mining operations that make the Hormuz closure possible—have proven harder to eliminate.

Israel’s Parallel War

While Trump talks up diplomacy, Israeli operations continue. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that ‘we continue to attack both in Iran and Lebanon,’ even as he acknowledged Trump’s belief in a possible deal. “We will safeguard our vital interests in any agreement,” Netanyahu said.

A goal of toppling Iran’s regime has never been explicitly stated by either ally but has hovered over the campaign since its February 28 launch. The death toll has surpassed 2,500 people across Iran, Lebanon, and Israel, with millions displaced.

Two Narratives, One War

The diplomatic theater—Washington announcing progress that Tehran furiously denies—may reflect less confusion than calculation. Trump faces pressure to show results without appearing to retreat from his maximalist threats. Iran’s hardliners cannot be seen to negotiate under fire.

Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are relaying messages between the governments. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, departing for a G7 meeting in France, acknowledged “progress” through “intermediary countries” but offered no specifics.

For now, the war continues. The pause applies only to energy infrastructure—not to military targets, not to Israeli operations, and not to Iran’s attacks on shipping. Trump has given himself until April 6. What happens after that depends on whether the fog of diplomacy lifts or thickens.

Sources