$250 million in alleged bribes to Indian officials. $10 billion in promised US investment. One lawyer with the right connections, and the criminal case against Asia’s richest person began to evaporate.

US authorities are preparing to dismiss fraud charges against Gautam Adani as early as this week, according to people familiar with the matter, ending a prosecution that has shadowed the Indian billionaire since November 2024. The Securities and Exchange Commission is simultaneously moving toward a civil settlement that will likely include financial penalties, Bloomberg first reported on Thursday.

The reversal did not happen on its own. It was engineered — methodically, expensively, and with the help of an attorney who represents the sitting US president.

A Five-Count Indictment, Now Fading

The original case was serious by any measure. Federal prosecutors in Brooklyn unsealed a five-count indictment on November 20, 2024, charging Adani, his nephew Sagar Adani, and several other executives with securities fraud, wire fraud conspiracy, and violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. The SEC filed parallel civil charges the same day.

According to the indictment, Adani and his associates paid or promised more than $250 million in bribes to Indian government officials to secure solar energy supply contracts projected to generate $2 billion in profits over two decades. Prosecutors alleged the group raised more than $3 billion from US and international investors while concealing the bribery scheme. Conspirators privately referred to Gautam Adani by code names including “Numero uno” and “the big man,” according to court filings reported by India Today.

Deputy Assistant Attorney General Lisa Miller said at the time that the alleged offenses were “committed by senior executives and directors to obtain and finance massive state energy supply contracts through corruption and fraud at the expense of US investors.”

Six months later, that language is gone. In its place: a confidential meeting at the Justice Department.

The 100-Slide Presentation

Earlier this year, Adani hired Robert J. Giuffra Jr., co-chair of Sullivan & Cromwell and one of Donald Trump’s personal attorneys. Giuffra had agreed to represent Trump in appeals of personal cases, including the Stormy Daniels hush-money conviction, shortly before the president’s second term began.

In April, Giuffra visited Justice Department headquarters in Washington for a previously unreported meeting, according to the New York Times. He brought a presentation of roughly 100 slides arguing that prosecutors lacked sufficient evidence and jurisdiction to pursue the case.

One slide included a promise: if charges were dropped, Adani would invest $10 billion in the US economy and create 15,000 jobs — an investment commitment he had first announced after Trump’s election victory.

Giuffra also sought to resolve the parallel SEC civil case and a separate Treasury Department investigation during the same meeting. Both agencies are now preparing settlements, according to the Times.

Prosecutors later told Giuffra the proposed investment would not influence the criminal case. But at least one senior Justice Department official reacted favorably to the offer during the meeting, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The Justice Department and Sullivan & Cromwell have not responded to requests for comment.

Follow the Timing

The sequence is difficult to ignore. Adani was indicted in the final months of the Biden administration. By January 2026, the SEC was asking the court for help serving summonses, noting that Indian authorities had twice refused its requests to deliver legal documents to Adani Group executives. India’s government, for its part, showed no willingness to cooperate with the prosecution of its most powerful businessman.

Adani’s legal team appeared in court days later to request a deferral. Gautam and Sagar Adani eventually agreed to accept legal notice from the SEC, gaining 90 days to respond.

Then came the hiring of the president’s personal lawyer. Then the April meeting. Then 100 slides. Then the $10 billion promise.

And now, the charges are poised to disappear.

Adani has been unstinting in his praise of Trump. “If there is one person on Earth who stands as the embodiment of unbreakable tenacity, unshakeable grit, relentless determination and the courage to stay true to his beliefs, it is Donald Trump,” he wrote in November. The statement came after Trump’s reelection but before the legal strategy shifted — a timeline that is notable, if not conclusive.

The Geopolitical Calculus

The Adani case never existed in a purely legal vacuum. Gautam Adani is not merely a businessman. He is a political figure whose fortunes are deeply entwined with those of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Adani founded his conglomerate in Gujarat — Modi’s home state — and expanded it into ports, airports, mining, and power generation as Modi rose from chief minister to prime minister.

The relationship has drawn persistent allegations of “crony capitalism,” which the Adani Group has denied. Journalists who attempted to investigate the company have faced harassment and legal proceedings, according to The Guardian.

For Washington, the strategic dimension is unavoidable. India is central to the American effort to counterbalance China across the Indo-Pacific — the democratic partner needed for regional security and supply chain resilience. A prolonged criminal prosecution of India’s most politically connected industrialist carried real diplomatic costs.

Whether those costs were weighed against the merits of the case is a question the Justice Department will not answer publicly.

What Remains

The criminal charges appear headed for dismissal. The SEC civil case is moving toward settlement with likely financial penalties. For Adani, the outcome is close to total: pay a fine, escape criminal liability, and rebuild.

The Adani Group has lost an estimated $13 billion in market value during the legal battle, according to Reuters. Much of that stands to return quickly if the overhang lifts. Forbes values Adani’s current net worth at $82 billion — already up $3.5 billion in a single day amid an unrelated business deal.

The case leaves behind an uncomfortable set of questions. If the evidence was insufficient, why was the indictment brought? If the evidence was sufficient, what changed between November 2024 and May 2026 — other than the presidency, the legal team, and a $10 billion investment promise?

Prosecutors have their answer ready: the investment played no role. The timeline invites a different conclusion.

A federal fraud indictment against one of the world’s wealthiest men, methodically dismantled after he hired the president’s personal lawyer and promised to invest billions in the United States. The official explanation is that these events are unrelated.

The record speaks for itself. Whether anyone is listening is a different matter.

Sources