Four polling institutes, four surveys, one verdict. Alternative for Germany — the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic party that German mainstream politics spent a decade insisting was containable — is now the country’s most popular political force.

The ZDF Politbarometer, published Friday, put the AfD at 26 percent in its election projection, unchanged from the previous survey, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc slipped one point to 25 percent. YouGov, polling 2,178 voters between April 10 and 13, recorded a wider margin: 27 percent for the AfD against 23 percent for the conservatives — the CDU/CSU’s worst showing in any YouGov survey since December 2021. INSA and Forsa have produced the same result.

A milestone that would have been politically inconceivable five years ago is now a weekly data point.

A Government Loses the Room

The polling reflects something deeper than mid-term grumbling. Only 27 percent of Germans told ZDF they were satisfied with the coalition, down from 34 percent in March. YouGov recorded 79 percent dissatisfaction — compared with 55 percent in June 2025, weeks after the government took office.

Merz has absorbed significant damage. His approval has fallen to 30 percent in the Politbarometer, and he has dropped to eighth place in the survey’s politician sympathy rankings, his lowest position ever. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil is viewed positively by just 29 percent. Economy Minister Katherina Reiche fares worse at 19 percent. Only Defense Minister Boris Pistorius retains strong public confidence.

The rot extends to the chancellor’s own base. Among CDU voters, satisfaction with the government fell from 48 percent in March to 34 percent in April, according to YouGov data reported by Die Welt. The SPD, the coalition’s junior partner and Germany’s oldest political party, has cratered to 12 percent in the ZDF projection — a historic low.

The Iran War at the Pump

The immediate catalyst is energy prices. The war in Iran has driven fuel costs higher, and German voters are holding their government responsible. The ZDF survey found that 81 percent of respondents believe the coalition is doing too little about rising energy costs, and 57 percent said the energy transition is moving too slowly.

A planned temporary fuel tax cut of 17 cents per liter, intended as relief, met near-universal cynicism: 91 percent told ZDF they do not expect oil companies to pass the savings to consumers. On the war itself, 87 percent said they did not expect it to end within weeks, and 93 percent rejected German military involvement — a demand that has come from Washington.

The Firewall Meets the Math

Germany’s mainstream parties have maintained a strict cordon sanitaire around the AfD: a collective pledge to refuse federal-level cooperation. The premise is straightforward — denied the legitimacy of governing, a fringe party stays on the fringe.

But a party leading the polls does not need to enter government to set the national agenda. The coalition mathematics are already strained. At current Politbarometer numbers, the CDU/CSU and SPD together command 37 percent — insufficient for a parliamentary majority. The Greens, at 14 percent, could close the gap, but a three-party coalition presiding over barely half the electorate while the single most popular party sits in opposition is a volatile arrangement. It presupposes public patience. There is little evidence of any.

The CDU’s strategy of toughening its stance on immigration has not recovered voters from the AfD. If anything, the polling trajectory suggests it has normalized the far-right’s priorities without reclaiming its supporters.

A System Not Built for This

Germany’s postwar political architecture was designed to prevent the fragmentation that destroyed the Weimar Republic: proportional representation tempered by a five-percent threshold, keeping extremists out while ensuring a stable center. The system produced two-and-a-half party configurations that made coalition-building predictable for decades.

What the architecture was not designed for is a party that dominates the national conversation from opposition benches — pulling the political center rightward without ever holding executive power.

German voters are not blind to the continental context. The same ZDF survey found 74 percent expect improved EU cooperation following Viktor Orbán’s electoral defeat in Hungary. Voters welcome the retreat of right-wing populism abroad while advancing it at home.

The AfD does not need to govern to win. It needs the center to keep losing credibility. On present evidence, the center is obliging.

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