Russia’s State Duma has voted 381 to zero to grant Vladimir Putin explicit legal authority to deploy Russian armed forces into any country where he determines Russian citizens need protection. The legislation, which cleared its second and third readings on May 13, amends Russia’s laws on citizenship and defense to authorize military deployments when Russian citizens face arrest, detention, or prosecution by foreign courts. The decision to invoke the law rests solely with the president.

The vote was unanimous. No one abstained. No one dissented.

A Legal Redundancy With a Purpose

On paper, the bill’s stated purpose is narrow. State Duma chair Vyacheslav Volodin framed it as a response to Western justice, which he said had become a “repressive machine for dealing with those who disagree with the decisions imposed by European officials.” Defense Committee head Andrey Kartapolov tied the legislation to the detention of archaeologist Alexander Butyagin in Poland, who was released in late April.

The law’s practical impact, however, is less significant than its political signal. The independent newsletter Faridaily noted that Putin already possessed the right to “take measures” to protect citizens under Article 8 of Federal Law No. 390 on security. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 under the same rationale of protecting Russian speakers — neither operation required this legislation.

Lawyers quoted by Kommersant suggested the law could formalize naval escorts for the “shadow fleet” tankers Moscow uses to circumvent sanctions. The independent outlet The Bell reported that lawmakers modeled the bill on the American Servicemembers’ Protection Act of 2002 — the “Hague Invasion Act” — designed to shield US personnel from the International Criminal Court. The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Putin, children’s rights commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, and former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, among others.

The bill arrived amid escalating warnings from European intelligence agencies. Germany’s BND warned in summer 2025 about the risk of provocations in the Baltic states following a “Crimea scenario.” France’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Fabien Mandon, called for preparations for a confrontation with Russia within three to four years. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War assess that the “zero phase” of such preparations is underway: military districts are being restructured, bases established near the Finnish border, and acts of sabotage and GPS jamming recorded across Europe.

183,000 Fewer Prisoners

The same week the Duma codified its invasion powers, Russia’s penitentiary service disclosed how thoroughly the war has reshaped another state institution.

Federal Penitentiary Service director Arkady Gostev told the state news agency TASS that Russia’s prison population fell from 465,000 at the end of 2021 to 282,000 — a decline of nearly 40 percent, representing 183,000 fewer inmates. Roughly 85,000 of those remaining are in pre-trial detention.

Gostev attributed part of the decline to what he called the “humanization” of criminal sentencing — broader use of suspended sentences, forced labor, and non-custodial penalties. But he acknowledged that army recruitment of prisoners as contract soldiers had also “had a certain influence.”

The practice began in summer 2022 under the Wagner Group and its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, before the Defense Ministry assumed control. According to Mediazona and BBC News Russian, Wagner alone recruited at least 48,366 inmates for the war. In two months — September and October 2022 — the men’s prison population fell by 23,000. Over 2023, it dropped by more than 54,000.

From Gulag to War Economy

The prisons have supplied more than soldiers. Gostev said 16,000 additional inmates were deployed for manufacturing in support of the army, producing goods worth approximately 5.5 billion rubles (€64 million) for what Moscow calls its “special military operation.” Total prison production in 2025 reached 47 billion rubles (€548 million). The prison labor system, inherited from the Soviet Gulag, has been absorbed into the wartime economy.

Gostev acknowledged that returning prisoners have contributed to rising crime and social tension inside Russia. The country faces a broader labor shortage, with hundreds of thousands of men at the front and a comparable number who fled during mobilization. The prison system has become one mechanism for filling both manpower and production gaps.

A State Built to Last

The two developments, landing in the same week, describe a country that is institutionalizing its war footing rather than preparing to wind it down. A law that codifies the legal pretext for future military operations is not a gesture toward de-escalation. A prison population drained by 40 percent to supply the front is a logistics pipeline, not a penal reform.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested in April that Russia’s domestic crackdown — including bans on popular messaging apps — may signal preparations for a new mobilization and offensive, potentially against Ukraine or the Baltic states. Sweden announced this week it would establish a new intelligence agency targeting overseas threats, part of a broader reassessment driven by Russia’s war.

The Duma vote was unanimous. The cells are emptying. The question is where the recruits go next.

Sources