Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were packed and ready for an 18-hour flight to Islamabad. Then their boss told them to stay home.

President Donald Trump on Saturday abruptly cancelled his negotiating team’s trip to Pakistan for talks aimed at ending the eight-week war with Iran, declaring on Truth Social that there was “too much time wasted on traveling, too much work” and that Iranian leadership was consumed by “tremendous infighting and confusion.”

“I’ve told my people a little while ago they were getting ready to leave, and I said, ‘Nope, you’re not making an 18 hour flight to go there,’” Trump said in a White House statement. “We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want.”

This was not a scheduling conflict. It was a deliberate diplomatic withdrawal — and it leaves a fragile ceasefire with no clear path to something more durable.

A Ceasefire Built on Air

The war began on February 28 with US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran. Iran retaliated with strikes against Israel, American bases in the Gulf, and allied states. A ceasefire has held since April 7, after Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly persuaded the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to accept it — though the Institute for the Study of War assesses that IRGC Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi likely disapproved.

The truce is entirely informal: no written text, no verification mechanism, periodic flare-ups. Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire on Tuesday for an additional two weeks. On Saturday, international flights resumed from Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport for the first time since the war began — a small, concrete sign that the pause is reaching civilian life.

The underlying dispute remains frozen. The United States wants Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons program in “meaningful and verifiable ways,” as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters. Iran says it will not accept “maximalist demands,” according to an Iranian diplomatic source who spoke to Reuters in Islamabad.

The Hormuz Squeeze

Between those two positions sits the Strait of Hormuz — and with it, the health of the global economy.

Iran has largely closed the waterway, which normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments. Shipping data from Friday showed just five vessels transiting the strait in the previous 24 hours, compared to around 130 per day before the war, according to Reuters. The US has answered with a naval blockade of its own, cutting off Iranian oil exports.

The twin chokehold is biting in both directions. Brent crude futures soared 16% this week on uncertainty over the talks, stoking inflation worldwide. On Iran’s side, the blockade is creating a storage crisis: an Iranian parliamentarian warned on April 24 that the country may have to shut in oil wells entirely if storage runs out, according to the ISW.

The Hardliners Win in Tehran

Trump’s complaint about Iranian “infighting” was not rhetorical flourish. The ISW assesses that Vahidi has consolidated control over Iran’s war and negotiating posture, defeating a “pragmatist” bloc led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Araghchi.

Ghalibaf has reportedly resigned from the negotiating delegation out of frustration with internal divisions. Vahidi’s faction supports positions “irreconcilable” with stated US demands and has shown greater willingness to accept the risk of renewed war.

This is the leadership landscape Trump is refusing to negotiate with — a regime where the men willing to make concessions are being sidelined by the men who are not.

The Vance Precedent

Saturday’s cancellation also reflects frustration with how the first round of diplomacy ended. Vice President JD Vance presided over talks in Islamabad on April 11 and 12. Those negotiations collapsed without a framework, stalling over sequencing — neither side would make the first substantive concession.

Vance had been prepared to travel again if the new round showed progress. Instead, the White House is waiting by the phone. Trump told Reuters on Friday that Iran planned to make an offer aimed at satisfying US demands but that he did not know what the offer entailed.

The Phone That Won’t Ring

Araghchi, who met Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad on Friday, plans to travel next to Oman and Russia, according to the ISW. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said Tehran’s concerns would be conveyed through mediator Pakistan but that Iranian officials had no plans to meet American representatives.

The broader regional picture offers little comfort. Iran says a ceasefire in Lebanon — where Israel invaded last month to push back Hezbollah — is a precondition for broader negotiations. On Thursday, Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire for three weeks at a White House meeting. By Saturday, four people had been killed in Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon and Hezbollah had fired rockets at Israel, according to Lebanese state media and the Israeli military.

The war that began in late February has killed thousands, rerouted tens of thousands of flights, and pushed energy prices to multi-year highs. Both Washington and Tehran say they want to talk. Trump has now clarified his terms: Tehran can call when it’s ready. Whether anyone in Tehran has the authority to pick up — or the inclination to dial — is a different matter entirely.

Sources