On Monday, the Netherlands will do something it has never done: activate a national energy crisis plan designed for exactly this kind of moment. The cause is not a Siberian pipeline but a narrow waterway 5,000 kilometres away where commercial tanker crews are taking fire.

The Dutch cabinet will move to Level 1 of the Landelijk Crisisplan Olie — the National Oil Crisis Plan — according to government sources confirmed by RTL and first reported by De Telegraaf. The plan was drafted during the energy crisis that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 but has never been deployed. The Netherlands is the first European government to formally activate crisis provisions linked to the Strait of Hormuz disruption.

What Level 1 Means

The first of four escalation stages does not signal immediate fuel shortages. Instead, it declares that fuel markets are distorted — the technical term for what happens when oil prices spike past $100 a barrel and refuse to settle. Under Level 1, energy markets face close government monitoring while officials and industry coordinate contingency plans for a deeper crisis.

Dutch citizens will not see empty petrol stations this week. But they will see Prime Minister Rob Jetten on Monday, announcing measures to compensate households for rising energy costs. Those are expected to include tax breaks for car owners, though not a reduction in fuel taxes — a decision that signals the government is bracing for a prolonged disruption rather than a brief shock.

Why the Netherlands Moved First

The Netherlands is not Europe’s most energy-vulnerable state. It has a relatively diversified energy mix and hosts some of the continent’s largest LNG import terminals. But it is also home to Rotterdam — the largest petroleum refining and logistics hub in northwest Europe. When oil markets seize up, the Dutch feel it faster than most, and the government appears to have concluded that waiting was a bet it could not afford.

The proximate cause is unambiguous. Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz for more than six weeks in response to US and Israeli attacks that began in late February. At least two commercial vessels have come under fire from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, according to Reuters. The United States has responded with its own blockade of Iranian ports, which President Donald Trump said on Friday would “remain in force.”

The strait carries roughly 20 percent of global oil exports. Its closure has sent oil prices above $100 a barrel and natural gas prices up more than 12 percent, France24 reported.

A Continent on the Clock

If the Dutch are reaching for emergency measures, harder-hit nations cannot be far behind. The International Energy Agency has warned that Europe may have as little as six weeks of jet fuel remaining, with shortages possible by late May or June. Three-quarters of Europe’s jet fuel imports previously came from the Middle East, according to the IEA.

The signs are already accumulating. KLM will cancel 160 European flights in the coming month. Lufthansa is shutting down its regional subsidiary CityLine earlier than planned. EasyJet absorbed £25 million in additional fuel costs in March alone, despite hedging more than three-quarters of its supply. European jet fuel prices hit an all-time high of $1,838 per tonne in early April — more than double the pre-war level of $831.

The fallout extends well beyond aviation. Nearly half the world’s supply of fertiliser-grade urea passes through Hormuz, along with roughly 30 percent of global ammonia. The World Bank’s chief economist Indermit Gill warned that knock-on effects could increase acute food insecurity by roughly 20 percent on top of the 300 million people already affected. The UK is preparing contingency plans for carbon dioxide shortages that could disrupt food processing. Japan, dependent on the strait for 80 percent of its naphtha imports, faces potential medical supply disruptions.

Iran announced on Friday it would reopen Hormuz for the duration of a 10-day ceasefire. But even if tankers resume flowing immediately, Amaar Khan, head of European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media, estimates it would take five to six weeks for supplies to normalize — cutting dangerously close to the summer travel peak.

A temporary reopening during a fragile ceasefire is not the same as a resolution. The Netherlands just became the first European government to say so out loud.

Sources