Moscow has told every foreign embassy in Kyiv to get out. The message, delivered by Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova in a Telegram video on Wednesday, was blunt: Russia’s armed forces will launch a “massive” retaliatory strike on the Ukrainian capital if Kyiv disrupts Victory Day commemorations this weekend, and the consequences are inevitable.

That a government would warn diplomats to flee a city it plans to attack — three days in advance — is unusual. That the attack would be timed to coincide with celebrations marking the end of World War II is the kind of historical irony this conflict has produced from the start.

A Scaled-Down Parade, a Scaled-Up Threat

Victory Day, marked each year on May 9, is Russia’s most important secular holiday — a vast military parade through Red Square commemorating the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany. This year, the parade will proceed without tanks, armored vehicles, or artillery for the first time in nearly 20 years. Russian-installed authorities in annexed Crimea have cancelled Victory Day events altogether, citing “safety concerns.” Moscow has imposed intermittent city-wide internet shutdowns lasting through Saturday.

The scaling back is a concession to Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to strike deep into Russian territory. On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces hit a military-industrial complex in Cheboksary, roughly 1,200 kilometers from the border, using a domestically produced long-range cruise missile known as the Flamingo. Two people were killed, according to AFP. The strike deepened a sense of vulnerability ahead of the holiday.

Zelenskyy, speaking at a European Political Community meeting in Armenia on Monday, noted the absence of military hardware in Moscow’s parade plans. “It will be the first time in many, many years they cannot afford military equipment, and they fear drones may buzz over Red Square,” he said. “This is telling.”

The Ceasefire That Wasn’t

Both sides offered competing ceasefires. Ukraine proposed a unilateral truce for May 6. Russia proposed its own for May 8-9, timed to Victory Day.

Neither held.

Within the first 10 hours of Ukraine’s proposed ceasefire, Russian forces violated it 1,820 times, Zelenskyy said. The violations included drone strikes on civilian infrastructure. On Wednesday morning, a Russian drone hit a kindergarten building in Sumy, in northern Ukraine, killing two people. No children were present.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said the attacks showed that Russia “rejects peace” and that its “fake calls for a cease-fire on May 9 have nothing to do with diplomacy.” In total, Russia launched more than 110 drones and cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukrainian targets overnight, Ukrainian officials reported.

Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine would “respond in kind” and said Russia’s redeployment of air defenses to protect Moscow had created “additional opportunities” for Ukrainian long-range sanctions. “This indicates that the Russian leadership is not preparing for the ceasefire that has been the subject of so many statements,” he wrote on X. A frontline commander, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity, put it more plainly: “An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.”

What the Warning Signals

Russia’s decision to publicly warn foreign diplomats — rather than simply strike without notice — serves multiple purposes. It telegraphs scale. Telling 85 foreign embassies to evacuate is not a subtle signal: Moscow is preparing strikes significant enough that it does not want diplomatic collateral damage. It also shifts responsibility, framing any civilian casualties in advance as the consequence of Ukraine’s provocations rather than Russia’s bombing campaign.

The timing fits a well-established pattern. Russia has repeatedly used symbolic dates to escalate while framing that escalation as defensive retaliation. The threat of strikes on Kyiv, “including against decision-making centres,” is calibrated to sound proportionate while signaling mass bombardment.

Peace talks, already stalled, have been further sidelined by the Iran conflict, according to France 24. Moscow continues to demand that Ukraine withdraw from four regions it claims as its own — terms Kyiv considers unacceptable. More than four years of war have killed hundreds of thousands of soldiers and tens of thousands of civilians.

Zelenskyy, in his evening address on Wednesday, drew the line clearly: “However, if that one person in Moscow, who cannot live without war, is interested in nothing but a parade and nothing else, that is a different matter.”

Victory Day was designed to celebrate the end of a war. Russia is preparing to use it to intensify one.

Sources