Five senior MEPs. A letter to the European Commission. Three days before Hungary’s most consequential election in 16 years. The message: the vote may already be compromised.

On Thursday, a cross-party group of lawmakers responsible for monitoring rule-of-law concerns in Hungary wrote to Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Justice Commissioner Michael McGrath, urging “concrete steps” over what they describe as severe threats to Sunday’s parliamentary election. The letter raises “serious doubts” about whether the vote “can take place in a genuinely free and fair electoral environment,” citing disinformation, foreign interference, misuse of state resources, and intimidation of journalists.

At the center of the warning is what the MEPs call “a potential Russian interference operation in Hungary” — covert support for the ruling Fidesz party. According to investigative reporting by VSquare, the operation is overseen by Sergei Kiriyenko, first deputy chief of staff to Vladimir Putin, who allegedly orchestrated a similar campaign in Moldova involving vote-buying and troll farms. At least three GRU military intelligence officers are currently operating in Budapest, VSquare reported, assisting with propaganda aimed at tilting the election in Viktor Orbán’s favour.

Losing Orbán would cost Moscow its most reliable ally inside the EU. “There is no other country which has served Russian interests in such a servile manner in the last years,” Péter Krekó, director of the Budapest-based Political Capital Institute, told Balkan Insight.

A journalist charged with espionage

The MEPs also highlight the case of Szabolcs Panyi, the investigative journalist whose reporting exposed the alleged Russian connection — and who was charged with espionage by the Hungarian government on Thursday. Gergely Gulyás, Orbán’s chief of staff, said Panyi had “spied against his own country in cooperation with a foreign state” and that his journalism was a “cover activity.”

Panyi denied the allegations. “Accusing investigative journalists of espionage is virtually unprecedented in the 21st century for a member state of the European Union. This is really something more typical of Putin’s Russia, Belarus and similar regimes,” he wrote on social media.

Leaked calls, confidential documents

The letter coincides with a separate but related crisis. Leaked recordings published by a consortium of investigative outlets show Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó briefing Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a key EU summit in December 2023 — stepping out of the meeting to report on leaders’ negotiations over Ukraine’s accession talks. In another transcript, Szijjártó offered to send Lavrov a confidential EU document about minority language rights in Ukraine’s accession process. “I will send it to you. It’s not a problem,” he told Lavrov.

The Commission’s chief spokesperson, Paula Pinho, said the recordings raised “the alarming possibility of a member state coordinating with Russia, thus actively working against the security and the interests of the EU.” France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, called it “a betrayal of the solidarity” required between EU countries.

The limits of leverage

The difficulty for Brussels is structural. The EU’s primary disciplinary tool — Article 7, which could suspend Hungary’s voting rights — requires unanimity among other member states, a threshold that has never been met.

Dutch Green MEP Tineke Strik, who co-authored Thursday’s letter, said the Commission has been “too hesitant” and is “very afraid” of being accused of election interference — even as Orbán campaigns on anti-EU rhetoric with billboards targeting von der Leyen herself.

“The union cannot credibly defend democracy externally while failing to react when the integrity of elections inside the union itself is placed under such serious strain,” the MEPs wrote.

Orbán has dismissed the interference allegations and framed the election as a choice between “war or peace.” On Thursday, he posted a video calling on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to “immediately call home his agents” — without providing evidence. US Vice President JD Vance visited Budapest this week in a show of support, attacking what he called “disgraceful” EU interference in the vote.

Opinion polls show opposition leader Péter Magyar’s Tisza party leading by around nine points. But analysts caution that Hungary’s electoral map, redrawn under Fidesz, combined with ethnic Hungarian voters in neighbouring countries and a high proportion of undecided voters, means anything from a Tisza supermajority to a Fidesz majority remains possible.

Sources