Giorgia Meloni sat between a rapper and a personal trainer on a podcast this week, swapping her usual trouser suit for a sparkly jumper. The Italian prime minister was not having a midlife pivot — she was hunting for votes.

The two-day referendum that opened on Sunday is, on paper, about restructuring Italy’s judiciary. In practice, it has become the first serious test of whether Meloni can mobilise the Italian electorate on command — and whether the political capital she has accumulated over three and a half years in power is as solid as she claims.

What the Reform Actually Does

The “Nordio Reform,” named after Justice Minister Carlo Nordio, would amend the Constitution to separate the career paths of judges and prosecutors, who currently belong to the same professional body and can switch roles. It would also split Italy’s judicial oversight body, the Superior Council of the Magistracy, into two councils and replace peer elections with a lottery system. A new High Disciplinary Court would handle misconduct proceedings.

Supporters say this curbs factional politics inside the judiciary. Critics call it a solution to a problem that barely exists — role-switching accounts for less than one percent of magistrates — while systemic dysfunction goes unaddressed. Naples chief prosecutor Nicola Gratteri told the Associated Press the government “has made it virtually impossible to combat crimes against the public administration and to tackle white-collar abuse and corruption.”

The Ghost of Berlusconi

The judiciary has been contested ground in Italian politics for decades. The late Silvio Berlusconi branded the courts a “communist” obstacle to governance; his party, Forza Italia, now part of Meloni’s coalition, drafted the current reform.

Meloni has adopted a subtler version of the same playbook. She has accused “powerful factions” within the judiciary of derailing her migration policies and warned at a Milan rally — without evidence — that rejecting the reform would mean “even more immigrants, rapists, paedophiles, drug dealers being freed.”

Opposition leader Elly Schlein countered that the reform “weakens the independence of the judiciary.” Criminal defence lawyer Franco Moretti, heading the “no” campaign, warned the new disciplinary court could become “the armed wing of politics.”

The Turnout Gamble

This confirmatory constitutional vote carries no quorum requirement — whichever side casts more ballots wins. Turnout is the entire game.

By noon on Sunday, participation had reached 14.88 percent, according to the Interior Ministry — double the rate at the same point during the 2025 citizenship referendum and the highest for any referendum in 23 years, according to Euronews. Polling before the vote showed the race too close to call. “She needs to mobilise her voters to have a better chance to win this race. But it’s going to be touch and go,” Roberto D’Alimonte of Luiss University told the BBC.

The Trump Problem

The referendum does not exist in a vacuum. The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, launched on February 28, is deeply unpopular in Italy. Donald Trump’s approval among Italians has cratered from 35 percent a year ago to 19 percent, according to Foreign Policy. Meloni’s own ratings have slid from above 45 percent in November to 37.5 percent — and her “Trump whisperer” image now looks more like a liability.

Rising fuel prices and inflation linked to the conflict give voters a reason to punish the government at the ballot box, even on an unrelated question.

What Happens Next

Polls close at 3 p.m. on Monday. Meloni insists she will not resign regardless of the result. But a defeat would crack the aura of invincibility she has maintained since taking office in October 2022, energise a fragmented opposition, and arrive at the worst possible moment — with European allies watching to see whether she remains a stabilising force or a diminishing one.

A win would give her momentum toward an even more ambitious goal: a future referendum to expand the powers of the prime minister’s office. Either way, Sunday’s vote is less about judges and prosecutors than about one leader’s hold on a country that is rarely held for long.

Sources