Thirty-five percent. That is what real-money traders on Kalshi now assign to the probability that the 25th Amendment will be invoked during Donald Trump’s presidency — a figure that has climbed from 28.6 percent in a single month and sits at its second-highest reading since the start of his second term.

On a separate Polymarket contract, participants put the chance of Trump’s impeachment before January 2029 at 70 percent, up 18 points in recent sessions. Kalshi’s own impeachment market shows just 3 percent odds of a House vote before June 2026 — but 74 percent before January 2028.

Prediction markets do not prophesy. They aggregate money, and money follows information. What the information is saying right now is unambiguous: the Iran war is eroding Trump’s political position at a pace markets find meaningful.

An Economist-YouGov poll conducted in late March found only 14 percent of Americans support sending troops to Iran, with 62 percent opposed. Trump’s approval ratings have slumped to term lows across Reuters/Ipsos, AP-NORC, CBS/YouGov, and Morning Consult surveys, with fuel prices from the Strait of Hormuz closure compounding economic strain.

The catalyst for the latest spike in 25th Amendment contracts was Trump’s Easter Sunday post on Truth Social — a profane threat directed at Iran that prompted Democratic Senator Chris Murphy to urge the Cabinet to consider invoking Section 4. Former ally Marjorie Taylor Greene posted that Trump “has gone insane” and called on those around him to “intervene in Trump’s madness.”

The 25th Amendment has never been used to remove a sitting president. It requires the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to declare the president unable to discharge his duties, followed by congressional involvement — a process with formidable legal and political barriers.

None of which changes what the markets are pricing. Polymarket traders currently assign 50 percent odds to a Democratic sweep in the 2026 midterms. Whether the bets pay off depends on events that have not yet happened. But the direction of the money is clear, and it is not flowing toward stability.

Sources