Two backpacks stuffed with explosives and detonators, left a few hundred metres from a pipeline pumping Russian gas into Central Europe. Serbian soldiers found them before anyone could set them off. The blast, had it succeeded, would have ripped through the Balkan Stream pipeline in northern Serbia and severed a critical energy artery feeding Hungary and Slovakia — echoing the still-unsolved 2022 destruction of Nord Stream, but with one crucial difference: this time, the sabotage was intercepted.

Within hours, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban knew exactly who to blame.

What Was Found

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced the discovery on Sunday, describing “two large packages of explosives with detonators” found near the municipality of Kanjiza, roughly 20 kilometres from where the pipeline crosses into Hungary. The Balkan Stream, an extension of the TurkStream system, carries between five and eight billion cubic metres of Russian natural gas to Hungary each year, according to the BBC.

Vucic said Serbian authorities believed they knew which group was responsible. “We think we know which group the individuals who were supposed to take that final step in activating the explosives belong to,” he said, without naming anyone. The head of Serbia’s Military Intelligence Agency, Djuro Jusic, told reporters in Belgrade that the explosives were produced in the United States, according to Reuters. He said authorities were searching for a suspect — “a person from a migrant community, with military training” — but gave no further details.

No arrests have been announced. The investigation continues.

A Convenient Accusation

Orban wasted no time drawing conclusions. After convening an emergency session of Hungary’s National Defence Council, he said that “according to information that we have… there was an act of sabotage prepared.” He stopped short of naming Ukraine directly but left little room for ambiguity. “Ukraine has been for years trying to cut off Europe from Russian energy,” he said, according to Reuters.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto was less circumspect, writing on Facebook that the Ukrainians had “organised an oil blockade” against Hungary and “now we have today’s incident.”

The accusations land squarely in the middle of Orban’s re-election campaign. Hungary votes on April 12, and his Fidesz party trails the opposition Tisza party in opinion polls after 16 years in power. Orban has built his campaign around the argument that his opponents would drag Hungary into war and destroy access to cheap Russian energy. At rallies, he has told supporters that low heating and fuel prices depend on Russian oil and gas — and that a “Kyiv-Brussels-Berlin” axis is conspiring to take them away.

Weeks of Warnings

The discovery did not catch everyone off guard. Hungarian security analyst Andras Racz warned publicly on April 2 that a staged attack on the TurkStream pipeline inside Serbia was being prepared, predicting that the explosives would be identified as Ukrainian. Former senior counter-intelligence officer Peter Buda told the BBC that “an operation like this would help Orban before the election by influencing public opinion in his favour.”

Opposition leader Peter Magyar was blunt. “Several people have publicly indicated that something will ‘accidentally’ happen at the gas pipeline in Serbia at Easter, a week before the Hungarian elections,” he said in a statement. “And so it happened.” He accused Orban of staging the incident with Russian and Serbian assistance.

The scepticism extends beyond Hungarian politics. Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, described the episode as “a seemingly convenient threat of terrorist action” designed to whip up fear and blame Ukraine. Investigative journalist Szabolcs Panyi said sources in Hungarian government circles had told him weeks earlier about a planned Russia-backed false-flag attack on the pipeline in Serbia.

Kyiv Pushes Back

Ukraine’s foreign ministry categorically rejected any connection. “Ukraine has nothing to do with this,” spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said on social media, calling the incident “most probably a Russian false-flag operation as part of Moscow’s heavy interference in Hungarian elections.”

Russia, for its part, voiced support for Hungary and suggested Ukraine bore responsibility — a statement that fits a well-established pattern. The Washington Post recently reported that Russian intelligence operatives had proposed staging an assassination attempt on Orban to boost his electoral chances, while The Guardian documented Russian-linked disinformation networks working to undermine Magyar’s campaign.

The incident also feeds a parallel energy dispute. The Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian oil through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia, has been idle since sustaining damage from a Russian missile strike in late January. Orban has accused Kyiv of deliberately delaying repairs. Ukraine says the pipeline should be functional again by mid-April.

The Nord Stream Echo

The discovery inevitably recalls the September 2022 explosions that shattered the Nord Stream pipelines beneath the Baltic Sea. That sabotage remains unsolved, with competing theories implicating Russian, Ukrainian, and Western actors. The Balkan Stream episode differs in one critical respect: the explosives were found before they could detonate, meaning forensic evidence — and whoever planted the devices — may still be traceable.

Whether Serbia’s investigation follows the evidence wherever it leads, or serves a political purpose in Budapest’s final campaign week, remains unclear. What is clear is the fragility of Europe’s energy infrastructure, and the willingness of actors across the continent to treat pipelines as leverage in disputes that have nothing to do with the gas flowing through them.

Sources