When Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te was scheduled to depart for Eswatini last Wednesday, he expected a routine visit to the island nation’s only remaining diplomatic ally on the African continent. Instead, he grounded himself in Taipei, the trip scrapped by forces thousands of miles away.

Three African countries — Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar — revoked overflight permits for Lai’s aircraft without warning, according to Taiwan’s presidential office. The official reason given by those governments was adherence to the one-China principle. The real reason, Taiwan says, was Chinese coercion.

The Pressure Campaign

Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar sit along the Indian Ocean corridor between East Asia and southern Africa. All three maintain diplomatic ties with Beijing and recognize the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government representing all of China — including Taiwan, which Beijing claims as a breakaway province.

A senior Taiwan security official told Reuters that China had threatened to impose economic sanctions against the three countries, including revoking debt relief arrangements. This threat proved sufficient.

“The cancellation of flight permits by Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar without prior warning was actually due to strong pressure from the Chinese authorities, including economic coercion,” said Pan Meng-an, secretary-general of Taiwan’s presidential office.

China’s foreign ministry expressed “high appreciation” for the African nations’ actions. “These countries’ adherence to the one-China principle is fully consistent with international law,” a ministry statement read.

A New Precedent

The incident marks the first time a Taiwanese president has been forced to cancel an overseas trip because of revoked flight permits. Previously, Taiwan’s leaders could overfly countries without formal relations — even countries aligned with Beijing — without significant interference.

That calculus has changed. “This is unprecedented in its coercing a third country to alter its sovereign decision through intimidation,” Pan said at a news conference in Taipei. “This not only jeopardises flight safety and violates international norms but also offends the feelings of Taiwan’s people.”

Taiwan’s presidents normally face no obstacles transiting through nations that do not formally recognize Taipei. But China harbors particular animosity toward Lai, whom Beijing has labelled a “separatist” and a “troublemaker.” Lai rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims and insists only Taiwan’s people can decide their island’s future.

Washington’s Response

The United States condemned the blockade. “These countries are acting at the behest of China by interfering in the safety and dignity of routine travel by Taiwan officials,” a State Department spokesperson said. “This is yet another case of Beijing waging its intimidation campaign against Taiwan and Taipei’s supporters around the world.”

China’s foreign ministry dismissed the criticism. “The US has irresponsibly criticised China’s legitimate actions to safeguard its national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters. “Such conduct constitutes a complete distortion of facts and a confounding of right and wrong.”

The Diplomatic Domino Effect

The incident illuminates Beijing’s expanding capacity to dictate terms beyond its immediate neighborhood. With 53 African nations — all but Eswatini — committed to diplomatic relations with Beijing, China can leverage economic incentives and penalties to isolate Taiwan’s remaining allies across an entire continent.

Taiwan now maintains formal ties with just 12 countries, most of them small states in Latin America, the Caribbean and the Pacific. China has accelerated its campaign to poach those allies in recent years: Nauru switched recognition from Taipei to Beijing in January 2024, following Honduras in 2023 and Nicaragua in 2021.

Eswatini, a landlocked monarchy of roughly 1.2 million people, remains the sole African nation maintaining diplomatic relations with Taiwan. King Mswati III visited Taipei for Lai’s inauguration last year. The kingdom’s government said it regretted the cancelled visit but that bilateral ties remained unchanged.

Beijing appears willing to spend considerable diplomatic capital to ensure that even symbolic gestures — a presidential aircraft crossing a distant ocean — carry consequences. The message to other small nations considering closer ties with Taipei is unmistakable: the cost of defection has risen.

For Taiwan, the incident demonstrated what its president called “the risks authoritarian regimes pose to the international order.” For Beijing, it was confirmation that the arc of history bends toward one-China — and that no overflight permit is beyond reach.

Sources