32.8 degrees Celsius. That is the highest temperature ever recorded in a British May, set across Tunbridge Wells, Horsham and central London on a bank holiday Monday in 1944. Eighty-two years later, forecasters say it will not survive the weekend.

Saturday already delivered 30.5C at Frittenden in Kent — the UK’s first 30C day of the year, and the earliest that threshold has been reached since 1952, according to the Met Office.

The peak is expected on bank holiday Monday, when models show parts of south-east England and the Midlands could exceed 33C. If confirmed, it would break the all-time May temperature record. The May nighttime record of 18.9C, set in Folkestone in 1947, could fall too.

Thirty-degree days in May are historically rare. The Met Office notes that most years do not reach 30C until June or later; the last May occurrence was in 2012. The current forecast suggests the UK could see four or five such days this week alone.

The warmth is driven by a shift in wind direction, with the jet stream moving north and drawing hot air from continental Europe. One of central and southern England’s driest Aprils on record left ground conditions primed for rapid warming.

Not everyone is basking. North-west Scotland is expected to stay cloudy with rain and temperatures in the low teens. Amber heat-health alerts — indicating potential risk to life — remain in force across the Midlands and eastern England until at least Wednesday, with yellow alerts covering much of the rest of England.

The three warmest UK springs on record have all occurred since 2017. This one is shaping up to leave its own mark.

Sources