The people who ransacked Brazil’s Congress three years ago just caught a break from the people who work there.

Brazil’s Congress voted Thursday to override President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s veto of a bill that dramatically reduces prison sentences for those convicted of attempting to overturn the country’s 2022 election — including former president Jair Bolsonaro, sentenced last year to 27 years and three months for leading the plot.

The override passed comfortably: 318 votes in the lower house, well above the 257 required, and 49 in the Senate, clearing the 41-vote threshold. Conservative opposition leaders had drawn enough centrist support that the outcome was widely expected before voting began.

A Sentence Rewritten

For Bolsonaro, 71, the legislation could reduce his total sentence from 27 years and three months to 22 years and one month, according to The Guardian. More consequentially, the time he must serve in closed prison could drop from an estimated four to six years to between two and four years — potentially allowing the former president to transition to an open regime as early as 2028.

The bill changes how Brazil calculates sentences when a defendant is convicted of multiple overlapping crimes. Under the new framework, judges must base sentencing on only the single count carrying the highest penalty, rather than stacking charges. Bolsonaro was convicted of both plotting a coup and attempting to abolish the democratic state.

He is currently under house arrest, transferred roughly a month ago due to health conditions. The new law explicitly specifies that house arrest does not prevent sentence reduction — a provision that extends well beyond Bolsonaro’s case.

The legislation benefits approximately 280 others convicted in connection with the coup attempt, according to The Guardian, and more than 200,000 people serving sentences for other crimes who had been ineligible to reduce their terms through work or study while under house arrest, according to Folha de S.Paulo.

Two Defeats in 24 Hours

The veto override landed less than a day after Lula suffered a separate historic reversal. On Wednesday evening, the Senate rejected his Supreme Court nominee, solicitor general Jorge Messias — the first time the chamber has refused a presidential court pick since 1894.

The rejection has been widely attributed to a deal between Senate president Davi Alcolumbre and the opposition, led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, one of the former president’s sons. According to The Guardian, Alcolumbre has told allies he will not schedule a new confirmation hearing until after October’s presidential election — in which Flávio Bolsonaro is expected to be Lula’s main challenger. The senator participated in Thursday’s vote.

The stakes of that vacancy are considerable. Several Supreme Court justices are expected to retire in the next four years. Jair Bolsonaro appointed two during his presidency. If his son wins in October, the family could secure a controlling majority of six out of the court’s eleven seats.

A Legislature Guards Its Attackers

The broader pattern is plain. A conservative-majority Congress is dismantling, piece by piece, the judicial consequences of an attempted coup — the same Congress that was the target of the January 8 riot, when Bolsonaro supporters ransacked Brasília’s government buildings in an assault that mirrored the US Capitol attack two years earlier.

Bolsonaro allies have made their ambitions explicit. “This is a first and much awaited step by those who are afflicted,” said Senator Espiridião Amin. “The next stage is full amnesty.”

Lula allies see the vote as something more ominous. “They want to release Bolsonaro, his jailed generals and stop federal police investigations that implicate them,” said Workers’ Party lawmaker Lindberg Farias. “This is a day of infamy.”

Lula has not publicly commented on either defeat. When he vetoed the bill in January — a symbolic gesture marking three years since the Brasília riots — he warned that reducing sentences for a coup attempt would encourage similar crimes. “This man must remain in prison,” he said at the time.

A Supreme Court in Play

The sentence reduction is not automatic. Bolsonaro’s lawyers must file for a review with the Supreme Court, which must be confirmed by a justice. The legislation itself is expected to face constitutional challenges — Workers’ Party whip Pedro Uczai has announced plans to appeal to the court to annul the law.

But the court is precisely the terrain on which Lula is losing ground. One vacancy unfilled. A hostile Senate. An October election that polls show as effectively tied.

Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in São Paulo, told the Associated Press that the vote was a troubling sign for the incumbent, though he noted that much could shift before October — including national attention being diverted to the upcoming soccer World Cup.

A legislature voting to shield the people who tried to overthrow it is not a phenomenon unique to Brazil. But the speed and institutional precision on display here — veto by veto, nomination by nomination — makes it worth watching closely.

Sources