The judge who convicted Jair Bolsonaro of plotting to overthrow Brazilian democracy has decided the 71-year-old former president is too ill to remain behind bars.

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ruled Tuesday that Bolsonaro will serve his 27-year sentence under house arrest after being hospitalized for nearly two weeks with bacterial pneumonia. The decision grants a humanitarian reprieve to a man found guilty of leading an armed conspiracy to overturn the 2022 election — but it comes with strict conditions and a 90-day clock.

Bolsonaro has been in the intensive care unit of a Brasília hospital since March 13. A medical note released Tuesday said he had been discharged from ICU and was in stable condition, though no release date was given. His lawyers have long argued that his recurring health problems — stemming from a 2018 stabbing during his presidential campaign — made prison untenable.

Moraes had previously rejected those arguments, citing flight risk. In November, Bolsonaro was transferred from house arrest to a prison cell after using a soldering iron to tamper with his electronic ankle monitor. He claimed confusion from hiccup medication was to blame.

This time, the justice relented — with significant constraints.

A Gilded Cage

Bolsonaro will return to his residence in a gated Brasília community, but he will hardly be free. He must wear an ankle monitor. He cannot use a cellphone or access social media, even through intermediaries. He cannot record videos. He may receive visits only from his children, doctors, and lawyers.

Military officers will guard the property. Supporters are banned from setting up camps outside. And in 90 days, Moraes will reassess whether the arrangement should continue — potentially requiring a new medical evaluation.

Legal experts note that Brazilian courts rarely reverse house arrest once granted, typically doing so only if a detainee’s health improves dramatically or they violate the terms. The 90-day limit is unusual, and Bolsonaro’s family has questioned its logic.

“He is going home for his health to improve,” his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, told reporters. “And then in 90 days if he improves he goes back to the place where his health was getting worse? There’s no sense in a temporary house imprisonment.”

The Precedent Problem

Bolsonaro’s lawyers pointed to precedent: former President Fernando Collor, 76, was allowed house arrest last year after corruption and money laundering convictions, due to age and health. Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet — appointed by Bolsonaro’s rival, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — supported the current request, writing that the prison system cannot provide the care Bolsonaro’s condition requires.

The decision reflects Brazil’s legal tradition of humanitarian consideration even for serious offenders. But it also illustrates the tension between compassion and accountability when the convicted man once held the highest office in the land.

Bolsonaro was found guilty in November of five charges, including armed criminal conspiracy, attempted coup d’état, and attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law. The justices concluded he knew of plans to assassinate Lula and his running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, and to execute Moraes himself. The plot collapsed because military commanders refused to back it.

A Political Ghost

Even confined, Bolsonaro remains a force in Brazilian politics. Polls show he retains significant support. His son Flávio, now his designated successor, is in a statistical dead heat with Lula for the October presidential election.

For Bolsonaro’s critics, the house arrest decision is evidence that the powerful operate by different rules — even when they try to dismantle those rules entirely. For his supporters, it is long-overdue recognition that their champion has been persecuted.

The 90-day review ensures the question will resurface. Whether Bolsonaro’s health will cooperate with the court’s timeline — or whether this temporary measure becomes, in practice, permanent — remains uncertain.