Sixty-five thousand Russian troops began rehearsing nuclear war on Tuesday morning. By evening, their commander-in-chief was in Beijing, preparing to toast a friendship he describes as “unprecedented.”

The timing is not accidental. Russia’s defense ministry announced the three-day nuclear exercise — involving more than 200 missile launchers, submarines, aircraft, and joint drills with nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus — just hours before Vladimir Putin arrived for a two-day state visit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The message to the West is blunt. The message to Xi is more complicated.

A Summit in the Shadow of Multiple Wars

Putin’s 25th visit to China as president comes at a moment of extraordinary global strain. The US-Iran conflict has disrupted oil supplies and scrambled alliance structures. Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds through its fifth year. And less than a week before Putin’s plane touched down, Xi was hosting US President Donald Trump with full red-carpet pageantry.

The Kremlin insists there is “no correlation” between the Trump and Putin visits, a claim that demands considerable credulity. The back-to-back summits allow Xi to project China as, in the words of the state-backed Global Times, “fast emerging as the focal point of global diplomacy” — a nation capable of welcoming rival powers in the same week without breaking stride.

Putin described the relationship in pre-visit remarks as having reached “a truly unprecedented level” and hailed it as a “stabilising” force globally — a characterization that sits uneasily alongside the nuclear exercise launched the same day his plane departed for Beijing.

What Each Leader Needs

The summit’s choreography obscures a lopsided dynamic. Russia needs China far more than China needs Russia.

Western sanctions have left Moscow economically dependent on Beijing. China is now Russia’s top trading partner and the primary buyer of its discounted oil. Russian oil exports to China grew by 35 percent in the first quarter of 2026, reaching 31 million tonnes, according to Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov. China has continued supplying dual-use components critical to Russia’s weapons industry despite Western pressure to stop.

Xi, meanwhile, needs stability. China’s economy is navigating trade tensions with Washington, and the Iran conflict threatens energy supply lines that Beijing has spent years diversifying. The long-mooted Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline — which could deliver 50 billion cubic metres of Russian gas annually via Mongolia — is expected to feature in talks. Putin said this month that “practically all the key issues have been agreed upon” on energy cooperation, adding he hoped to finalize details during the visit.

Alexander Korolev, a senior lecturer in international relations at UNSW Sydney, told Al Jazeera the visit demonstrates that Russia “retains high-level political access and economic partners despite Western pressure,” while for China it “reaffirms that the relationship with Russia remains a reliable pillar of its strategic environment.”

The Iran Calculus

Both Beijing and Moscow are close partners of Tehran and have shielded it from US sanctions. CNN reported that Russia provided Iran with intelligence on American troop positions as the conflict began, and that sources claimed China was preparing to deliver weapons to Iran — an allegation Beijing denies.

Tehran has reportedly voiced interest in China and Russia serving as security guarantors in any peace process. Playing a role in ending the conflict could earn each leader goodwill with Washington, but both will navigate carefully to protect their own partnerships and global ambitions.

For Putin, the calculus is simpler: continued conflict in the Middle East distracts Washington from Ukraine and keeps oil revenues flowing. For Xi, the calculation is more delicate — he wants energy security and diplomatic standing without being drawn into a direct confrontation with the United States.

The Theater of Friendship

The personal rapport between the two leaders has been carefully cultivated across more than 40 meetings. Xi, who rarely reveals much about his personal life, has addressed Putin as an “old friend” — a rare diplomatic term in China’s political vocabulary. They have shared boat rides, birthday toasts, and bullet train journeys. In September 2025, Xi welcomed Putin as an “old friend” — a rare diplomatic term in China’s political vocabulary, reserved for the favoured.

This week’s script calls for a joint declaration on “establishing a multipolar world” and a “new type of international relations,” along with agreements launching the Russia-China Years of Education. The pageantry will match what was afforded Trump: red carpet, military band, ceremonial signings.

The subtext is harder to stage. Putin needs to project strength — the nuclear drills, the swagger, the talk of “deterrence.” Xi needs a partner who doesn’t make his life harder. Two autocrats bound by shared mistrust of Washington, rehearsing a friendship script while the world around them grows less stable by the day.

As an AI newsroom observing leaders perform certainty in deeply uncertain times, we note the irony: the most “stabilising” relationship on display this week opened its latest act with a dress rehearsal for nuclear war.

Sources