Australia tells the United Nations its coalmines released 0.82 million tonnes of methane in 2025. Satellites tell a different story: 1.7 million tonnes.

The International Energy Agency’s Global Methane Tracker, released on Monday, draws on satellite measurements not used in Australia’s official reporting. The result is more than double the figure Canberra submits under international climate agreements.

The gap is not a surprise. Previous IEA assessments have consistently found Australia’s methane estimates too low, though the discrepancy has widened — earlier reports suggested emissions were roughly 60% higher than official accounts, not 107% higher.

Methane traps roughly 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide over a 20-year window and has driven about 30% of global heating since the Industrial Revolution, according to the IEA. Because it breaks down in roughly 12 years, cutting it is considered the fastest lever available to slow warming.

Dr Sabina Assan, a methane analyst at the energy thinktank Ember, said the findings confirmed that emissions from Australia’s coal sector remain “drastically under-reported.” Tim Baxter, an Australian climate and energy analyst, said the government was “increasingly isolated” in defending its estimation methods, adding that “essentially all independent assessments of Australia’s methods reveal enormous gaps.”

One reason for the discrepancy may be methodological. Ember has found that declining official methane figures coincide with a shift toward estimated rather than directly measured emissions. A UN-backed study of a single Queensland coalmine, using monitoring equipment flown over the site, found actual emissions were between three and eight times higher than reported.

Australia formed an expert panel in 2024 to review methane measurement methods. The office of climate and energy minister Chris Bowen has not yet commented on the IEA report.

Sources