$760 million in crude oil futures sold in a single minute. Twenty minutes later, Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz was open. Oil fell 11 percent.

The sequence on April 17, documented by Reuters using London Stock Exchange Group data, was not an isolated event. It was the latest in a pattern of enormous, precisely timed trades placed just before — sometimes minutes, sometimes hours — major announcements by US President Donald Trump. And it has regulators, lawmakers, and market participants asking whether someone with advance knowledge of American policy is cashing in.

A Pattern, Not a Coincidence

The BBC has matched trade volume data to at least five market-moving presidential statements since the start of Trump’s second term.

On March 9, a surge of bets on falling oil hit the market at 18:29 GMT — 47 minutes before a CBS News reporter posted on X that Trump had told her the US-Iran war was “very complete, pretty much.” Oil dropped 25 percent.

On March 23, traders sold roughly $500 million in oil futures about 15 minutes before Trump’s Truth Social post announcing a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION” to hostilities with Iran. Crude plunged. Trading volume at 6:49 am EST was approximately nine times the average for that time of day, according to data cited by Representative Ritchie Torres.

On April 7, some $950 million in oil bets preceded the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, Reuters reported.

The prediction markets show the same fingerprints. A Polymarket account called “Burdensome-Mix” wagered $32,500 on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being ousted. Maduro was seized by US special forces on January 3. The account collected $436,000, changed its username, and never bet again. Six accounts created on Polymarket in February won a combined $1.2 million betting on US strikes against Iran by February 28 — the day Trump confirmed the attacks. Five of those six accounts have not placed another trade since.

Follow the Money

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating, according to a person familiar with the matter cited by Reuters and CNBC. The probe covers oil futures trades on exchanges operated by CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange. Regulators have requested Tag 50 identifiers — data points that could reveal who placed the bets.

CME Group, for its part, pointed at prediction markets. “Importantly, any review of market behavior must include all venues, including prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi that list related products with little to no visibility,” a spokesperson told CNBC.

The platforms have their own connections to the administration. Donald Trump Jr is an investor in Polymarket, sits on its advisory board, and serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi. Both platforms recently announced new insider trading rules — measures some experts describe as efforts to pre-empt stricter government oversight.

The Denials

The White House has denied wrongdoing. Spokesman Davis Ingle told the BBC that “any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.” White House counsel David Warrington told CBS News the president “performs his constitutional duties in an ethically sound manner.”

Last month, the administration sent an internal email warning staff not to use insider information on prediction markets — a curious precaution if no one was doing so.

Torres, a New York Democrat, calls the activity “potentially the largest instance of insider trading in history.” Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse have separately demanded investigations.

The machinery to investigate, though, is diminished. The SEC’s top enforcement official resigned after clashing with agency leadership over pursuing cases tied to the president’s circle, Torres noted. The Justice Department’s Public Integrity Section, created after Watergate to prosecute corrupt officials, has been reduced from 36 lawyers to two.

Guardrails, Tested

The regulatory erosion has met some resistance.

Whether financial regulators can mount a similar defense remains uncertain. ESSEC Business School professor Paul Oudin, who specializes in financial regulation law, told the BBC: “You can have massive trades on a financial instrument that clearly show that someone was privy to what Donald Trump was about to declare. Yet there is a strong chance that no-one will be prosecuted.”

Insider trading was extended to cover US government officials in 2012. No one has ever been prosecuted under that provision.

Every Market Exposed

If the pattern reflects what it appears to — advance knowledge of presidential decisions being monetized in real time — the consequences do not stop at the American border. Brent crude, S&P 500 futures, and the prediction markets now drawing scrutiny are global instruments. A bet placed in London or Dubai or Singapore on the price of oil is, ultimately, a bet on the integrity of US policy announcements.

Every market on earth is exposed to the possibility that someone in the West Wing knows what the president will say before he says it.

Sources