The $35.5 billion had already started moving. Then, on Tuesday, a federal appeals court hit pause — and the entire US tariff apparatus lurched back into uncertainty.

In a brief order, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued an administrative stay on a May 7 ruling that had declared President Trump’s 10 percent global tariff unlawful. That lower court ruling was set to take effect Tuesday. Now it won’t — not while the appeals court considers the government’s motion.

Since the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s original tariff regime in February — ruling 6-3 that the president lacked authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — the administration has been forced to set up a refund portal and start returning money. As of Monday, US Customs and Border Protection had cleared $35.5 billion in refunds across more than 8 million import entries, according to a court filing by CBP’s Brandon Lord, executive director of trade programs. That’s out of roughly $166 billion eligible for return.

Some of that money is already spent.

The Legal Two-Step

The Court of International Trade’s May 7 decision in Oregon v. United States targeted the replacement tariff Trump deployed the same day the Supreme Court knocked down his original one. On February 20, Trump issued Proclamation 11012, imposing a 10 percent “import surcharge” under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, citing balance-of-payment deficits.

The trade court wasn’t buying it. In a 2-1 ruling, the panel found that Section 122 was designed to address balance-of-payment deficits — a specific macroeconomic condition — not the trade and investment deficits the president cited. “Nowhere does Proclamation No. 11012 identify balance-of-payment deficits within the meaning of the Section 122 as it was enacted in 1974,” the majority wrote.

But the remedy was narrow. Only three plaintiffs — two private companies and Washington State — had standing. No nationwide injunction. Three importers get relief, at least for now.

The government’s stay argument was straightforward: if refunds go out and the tariffs are ultimately upheld on appeal, the money may be gone for good. “Plaintiffs, conversely, can be made whole through refunds, including interest, if the tariffs are ultimately held unlawful and refundable,” the administration argued. The appeals court granted the pause.

Follow the Money

More than 26,000 companies have signed up for the CBP refund portal. More than 330,000 importers could be eligible. The $35.5 billion cleared so far is a fraction of the total — and doesn’t include anything owed under the Section 122 tariffs just put back in play.

For companies, the calculus is both financial and political. Trump has made no secret of his displeasure. On Truth Social Sunday, he called the payouts “hardly believable” and questioned why the Supreme Court didn’t shield already-collected duties from its ruling. Asked by CNBC about rumors of a White House blacklist targeting companies that pursued refunds, Trump responded: “they’ve got to know me very well.”

That implied threat has companies navigating between their balance sheets and the president’s long memory. Apple, Ethan Allen, and Mattel have opted for the refund portal rather than the more visible route of filing lawsuits, according to Politico. Apple CEO Tim Cook told shareholders the company is “following established processes” and would reinvest refunds in “U.S. innovation and advanced manufacturing” — a carefully worded assurance the money would flow into projects the president likes.

Caterpillar took the opposite approach. Despite reporting $2 billion in tariff losses for 2026, incoming CFO Kyle Epley told shareholders the company is “not currently including any [tariff] refunds” in its financial outlook. A $2 billion hole, and they won’t count on a dime of relief.

Others, like Costco and Diageo Americas, chose the courtroom — and drew the spotlight. Costco now faces a class-action lawsuit from consumers demanding a cut of any refunds. “No one wants to be the headline company,” Baker McKenzie partner Nat Halvorson told Politico. “Being in the spotlight as the company that got their refunds is probably the nightmare of most CEOs.”

What’s at Stake

The Section 122 tariffs expire in late July — 150 days from issuance — unless Congress extends them. The administration is already pursuing permanent replacements through Section 301 and Section 232 of trade law, authorities untouched by the Supreme Court ruling. Sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and semiconductors remain in place.

But the legal ping-pong carries a cost that doesn’t show up in any court filing. Businesses plan supply chains and price products months in advance. When $35.5 billion in refunds lands in corporate accounts one week and the legal basis for the tariff potentially reappears the next, “uncertainty” doesn’t begin to cover it.

Then there’s the consumer problem. Eight Democratic state treasurers, controllers and auditors sent Trump a letter Tuesday expressing “grave concerns” that the refund process “does not now nor will adequately reflect the actual distribution of costs.” Importers get repaid. Consumers who paid higher prices at the register get nothing. Class actions are pending against Costco, Nike, Nintendo, and IKEA.

The appeals court set a briefing schedule but gave no timeline for a ruling. The Section 122 tariffs are back in effect. The refund portal is still running. More than $130 billion in potential refunds remains outstanding.

Everyone is simultaneously owed money and potentially on the hook for it. As economic chaos goes, this is hard to beat.

Sources