Eleven consecutive years of increases. $2.887 trillion. A military burden of 2.5 percent of global GDP — the heaviest since 2009.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s annual report, published Monday, tells a straightforward story: the world is arming at a pace not seen since the financial crisis, and the drivers are multiplying rather than receding.

“Global military spending rose again in 2025 as states responded to another year of wars, uncertainty and geopolitical upheaval with large-scale armament drives,” said Xiao Liang, a researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme.

The United States, China, and Russia together accounted for $1.48 trillion — 51 percent of the global total. But the most revealing shift in 2025 was not at the top of the rankings. It was in Asia.

Asia’s Fastest Buildup in a Generation

Military spending across Asia and Oceania rose 8.1 percent to $681 billion, the sharpest annual increase since 2009. China’s budget grew 7.4 percent to $336 billion — its 31st consecutive year-on-year increase — as Beijing pressed ahead with a modernization program targeting 2035, testing sixth-generation fighter prototypes and moving closer to deploying its H-20 stealth bomber.

China’s neighbors took note. Japan increased its defense budget by 9.7 percent to $62.2 billion, pushing its military burden to 1.4 percent of GDP — the highest share since 1958. The increase supports a buildup plan launched in 2022, expanding missile and drone programs that mark a historic shift for a nation constitutionally committed to pacifism.

Taiwan raised spending by 14 percent to $18.2 billion, its largest annual increase since at least 1988, as People’s Liberation Army exercises around the island intensified. India, the world’s fifth-largest spender at $92.1 billion, lifted its outlay by 8.9 percent, driven by border tensions with China and a 2025 war with Pakistan that saw heavy investment in drones and aerospace assets.

The regional surge reflects long-standing security competition — but SIPRI’s researchers identified a newer catalyst: growing doubt that Washington will honor its security commitments.

“US allies in Asia and Oceania such as Australia, Japan and the Philippines are spending more on their militaries, not only due to long-standing regional tensions but also due to growing uncertainty over US support,” said Diego Lopes da Silva, a senior researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme. The Trump administration has simultaneously pressured allies to spend more and raised questions about whether the United States would come to their defense — a combination accelerating strategic autonomy movements from Tokyo to Canberra.

Europe Rearms at Cold War Pace

Europe told a parallel story. Military spending across the continent rose 14 percent to $864 billion — the steepest annual growth in Central and Western Europe since the Cold War ended.

Germany, now the world’s fourth-largest military spender, lifted its defense budget by 24 percent to $114 billion, crossing NATO’s 2-percent-of-GDP threshold for the first time since 1990. To fund the increase, Berlin changed its fiscal rules, exempting military spending above 1 percent of GDP from Germany’s constitutional debt brake. Spain’s budget jumped 50 percent. Poland’s rose 23 percent. Italy’s climbed 20.

Russia spent $190 billion — 7.5 percent of its GDP — while Ukraine devoted $84.1 billion, a staggering 40 percent of its economic output, to the fourth year of war. In both countries, military spending as a share of total government expenditure reached the highest levels ever recorded by SIPRI.

The American Dip That Won’t Last

The global figure would have been higher but for one factor: US military spending fell 7.5 percent to $954 billion, primarily because Congress approved no new military aid for Ukraine in 2025. Over the previous three years, such assistance had totaled $127 billion.

The decline is almost certainly temporary. Congress has approved over $1 trillion for 2026, and SIPRI programme director Nan Tian noted that President Trump’s latest budget proposal could push the figure to $1.5 trillion by 2027. According to the Pentagon, the first six days of the 2026 Iran war alone cost $11.3 billion.

Excluding the United States, global military spending grew by 9.2 percent in 2025. The American share of worldwide defense expenditure has been shrinking since 2020 — not because Washington is fundamentally retrenching, but because middle powers everywhere are building up simultaneously.

That worldwide proliferation carries risks beyond the balance of power. “A new arms race reduces trust and increases the risk of miscalculation,” Xiao Liang told Deutsche Welle. And with military budgets consuming a growing share of government spending, the trade-offs are becoming starker: social services, development aid, and infrastructure all compete for the same finite resources.

The post-Cold War era of gradual disarmament is not on pause. It is over.

Sources